BSCM Analyses

Statistical Arbitrage with MGARCH Model - May 12th, 2025
In this article, we explore the implementation and practical application of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH (DCC-MGARCH) model, a key tool for modelling both volatility and time-varying correlations between currency pairs.
First, we present the mathematical framework underlying the model, followed by a discussion of potential improvements and fine-tuning techniques. Finally, we propose a statistical arbitrage trading strategy based on the insights provided by the model.

Unveiling the Dynamics Behind Swap Spreads: A Quantamental Approach - May 8th, 2025
In this article, we investigate the dynamics of swap spreads, with a particular emphasis on the perplexing occurrence of negative swap spreads. Our study had two key objectives: first, to provide a comprehensive overview of the swap market and explain the emergence of negative swap spreads in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis; and second, to conduct an empirical analysis of swap spreads using key macroeconomic variables through linear regression and PCA.

U.S. Election Aftershocks: Trading the VIX’s Mean Reversion - December 14th, 2024
In this article, we propose a short VIX futures strategy that leverages the VIX's rise before U.S. elections and its subsequent decline post-election. By utilizing mean reversion and accounting for polling uncertainty, the strategy transforms election-driven volatility into a structured opportunity.

Macro Shocks Integration in HJM Model via Jump Diffusion - December 12th, 2024
In this article, we examine the implementation and practical applications of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model, a foundational framework for modeling the term structure of interest rates. Our study had two main goals: firstly, to delve into the deployment of this theoretical and mathematical model in real-world scenarios, and secondly, to enhance its predictive accuracy by integrating macroeconomic shocks.

BSCM x BSPEC - From the Brink- Private Equity in the Distressed Space - June 2nd, 2023
Amidst today's uncertain macroeconomic landscape, numerous firms face existential risks. However, what might seem like challenges for some, possesses immense investment opportunities for others.
In this report, we explore the intriguing world of distressed companies, shedding light on their key turnaround features and restructuring strategies employed by Private Equity firms. These once-misunderstood entities hold the potential to transform into lucrative investments for investors.

Are we entering a Private Markets Supercycle? - May 9th, 2022
The private capital industry is growing rapidly, reaching over $10 trillion last year and expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% even in a bearish scenario. Therefore, as equities and bonds markets find themselves in extremely precarious times, traditional asset managers are racing to expand offerings in alternative investments and grab private capital specialists as they struggle to boost profitability. The article provides an overview of past and future performance of private markets and looks at the factors potentially affecting their growth path.

The General Electric split up - December 3rd, 2021
GE represents one of America´s best-known industrial conglomerates. As a result of various disposals and divestments, nowadays it retains a significant market share in Aviation, Energy Infrastructure, Healthcare and Energy. However, this old giant will soon come to an end: from 2023 onwards GE will be divided into three different companies focused on renewable energy, aviation and healthcare. In this article we will analyse the key elements of the deal as well as provide an outlook of the history of conglomerates.

The future of Wealthtech and its evolving regulation - November 6th, 2021
Driven by an increasingly digitized world, traditional investment institutions as well as various startups have sought to leverage newer technologies to improve their businesses and product lines. This, in conjunction with investors’ desire to be more autonomous in how they invest, has led to the emergence of the wealthtech sector, a subsector of the fintech industry.

Covid-19 crisis: understanding the movements in oil prices - November 3, 2021
Oil is one of the world’s economic pillars, but also one of the most volatile commodities in the market, being affected by a number of different factors. During the unprecedented time of Covid 19, we saw extreme fluctuations in its price: from a record low in 2020, when futures prices turned negative for the first time in history, to the recent surge to over 80$ a barrel. These dramatic movements can have a significant impact on economic growth, thus it is important to understand the causes behind them. The article focuses on the oil prices behaviour through the lens of Covid-19, by looking at the different factors affecting the pricing mechanism.

The Interest Rate Dilemma: the potential effect of the new FED policy on banks' profitabilityThe Interest Rate Dilemma: the potential effect of the new FED policy on banks' profitability - Novembre 2, 2021
Following the Federal Reserve’s announcement to begin the tapering of its asset purchasing program, a heated debate is taking place among all banks on what investment strategy they should adopt in order to maximize their chances of success in such turbulent and dubious times. In this article we will give examples of what kind of strategies major banks put in place in the last months and explain the impact that the possible future direction of rates, following the FED decision of the next days, will have on banks' balance sheets.

Understanding the bond market - May 27, 2021
In this report, we will talk about the bond market and its role in the investment decisions of many. In particular, after a brief introduction on the structure and characteristics of fixed income securities, we will focus on the analysis of the Government bond market and the corporate bond one. In the former, we will focus mainly on the role of market expectations on the future monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In the latter, we will briefly present how, notwithstanding the clear stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the business of many firms, the spread between investment grade and non-investment grade bonds has remained fairly contained.

Equity Markets Boom: Alternative Methods to Go Public - May 11, 2021
2021 is highlighted by boom in both IPO and SPAC IPOs, while at the same time some companies opt out for Direct Listing instead. Today, companies are looking for alternative to IPO methods to go public and SPACs as well as Direct Listing are attracting an increased amount of attention. In the article we decided to have a detailed look at different methods to go public and compare their pros and cons to give a better perspective of possibilities.

Derivatives frenzy - An overview from Thales of Miletus to date - May 3, 2021
Companies are always exposed to risk due to volatility and other market moving events and they manage this risk through using various instruments, such as derivatives, one of the most fascinating and yet risky financial instruments in the market. This article will describe the role of derivatives in the financial markets throughout history and their regulation. Furthermore, it will analyse the current use of derivatives and the function of the VIX index.

Healthcare AI: The rationale behind Microsoft's bet on Nuance Communications - May 2, 2021
The global crisis caused by the Coronavirus has highlighted opportunities in virtual care-giving, AI, and ambient technology applied to healthcare. On the 12th of April, US tech behemoth Microsoft announced the acquisition of Nuance Communications, a pioneer and leader in those sectors. Starting from an overview of the AI industry, in this article you will discover more about the deal and AI applications to healthcare.

Banks’ capital requirements: from their role to the Fed’s decision to suspend the emergency capital relief - April 28, 2021
On 19th March 2021, the Federal Reserve announced the suspension by the end of the month of the relief from the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) introduced last year to support banks in the challenging times immediately following the pandemic outbreak. Notwithstanding the crucial role that capital requirements play – especially in crisis time – to preserve the soundness and proper functioning of the financial system, this decision has been welcomed with concerns by the Industry, mostly for its possible implications at micro and macro levels.

Yet another loss within Credit Suisse, will Archegos default be the last one? - April 26 2021
On March 29th, Credit Suisse disclosed $4.7bn of exposure to losses deriving from a $20bn fire sale by Archegos Capital, a US-based family office founded by Bill Hwang. The announcement sent the shares of the Swiss institution down by 14% and drew the attention of several regulators, while two top executives were fired in the umpteenth pursuit of a scapegoat. What really happened and why? What is prime brokerage and what are its risks? Discover it in our analysis!

Has Gold Lost its Safe-Haven Status? - April 21, 2021
Since its introduction in Lydia 600 BC (nowadays Turkey), gold has been used both as medium of exchange and store of value. For the last decades, gold has been considered by the financial literature as the ultimate safe haven as it has remained stable or even increased during times of crisis, such as the Great Depression of 1929. But before we get in more depth, we must first understand the financial meaning of a safe haven.

$29bn Finish Line in the Long-Lasting Relationship Between Apollo and Athene
- April 19, 2021
On March 8th, 2021 Apollo and Athene announced a merger of both companies in a $7.2bn all-stock transaction, creating a $29bn financial conglomerate. Before the transaction Apollo and Athene had a long-lasting relationship with its benefits but at the same time with potential negatives and thus transaction can be seen as a final step in the joint history of two companies. Find more about the transaction in the article!

Potentially the Largest Transformation of the North American Railroad Industry in the 21st Century: Canadian Pacific agrees to buy Kansas City Southern for $29bn
- April 17, 2021
On March 21, 2021, Canadian Pacific Railway agreed to acquire Kansas City Southern in a $29bn transaction. The acquisition would represent the most significant change in the US railroad industry (as well as North American) since 1999 when CSX and Norfolk Southern took over Conrail for splitting it between each other. The merged company will be the only Canada, United States and Mexico freight rail network on the continent. Find out details in the article!

Casavo raises €200m - is real estate profitable? - April 15, 2021
The residential real estate market was certainly affected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the metropolitan areas, but what changes has this black swan brought out? Casavo, an Italian company that has disrupted the way of conducting business in the residential segment, has overcome every expectation despite current challenges, and raised the biggest round in the Italian start-up realm. Is this market profitable? Which are its future trends? Discover more in this article!

ARK Invest - Investments or Speculation? - April 8, 2021
Many investors are asking themselves what they can realistically expect from ARK’s funds in 2021. On the one hand, the 12 month return is more than positive (+44.6%) but on the other many worries come from the very latest negative performances, an absurd -10.7% through March 29 and the deluded expectations for the debut of ARK's Space Exploration & Innovation ETF on Wall Street. Want to know more about ARK and its strategies? Discover more in our analysis!

The EdTech Industry: Overview and M&A Trends - April 3, 2021
EdTech, more thoroughly “education technology," can be defined as enhanced learning thanks to the mix of IT tools and educational practices. Recently, there has been a disrupting change in the education sector from conventional learning to personalized and interactive techniques. Digitization has increasingly shaped education thanks to creative techniques enforced with new technologies and learning has now become a lifelong process. Analysts foresee a thrive of the EdTech sector across the geographical regions and socio-economic backgrounds.
Discover more about the EdTech industry in this article.

Value Investing: An argument from ignorance? - March 31, 2021
“Value is dead” …is a conclusion many market participants are coming to these days. After almost 30 years of underperformance, the once “holy grail” of investing is assumed to have disappeared, especially since it was discovered as a systematic factor by Fama and French. Based on a dissemination of the value premium and a fresh look at a decade long trend in valuations, this article explores, why value could be lying low and when it might return.

Xerox hostile bid for HP and Carl Icahn’s activist campaign - March 28, 2021
Following our recent article on the history, tactics and current trends on hedge fund activism, we now present a brief analysis of a recent activist campaign carried out by Carl Icahn through his investment vehicle, Icahn Capital Management, against HP’s Board of Directors as they refused to agree to the announced takeover bid by Xerox Holdings Corp. in November 2019.

Hedge Fund Activism: Our Overview - March 26, 2021
On Tuesday 30th of March, Bocconi Students Capital Markets will host two exceptional investors and activists to talk about hedge fund activism in Europe: Gianluca Ferrari and Stefano Sardo. We felt the need to clear them the way and try to bring all attendees on the same level playing field. This article will tackle what you need to know about activism, including history, methods and tactics, performances, and current trends.

The development of the SPAC phenomenon: from its origins to the most recent trends - March 20, 2021
Special-Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) were created in 1993 but did not become significant until recently. In 2019 there were 59 SPAC IPOs, raising over $12 billion. However, in 2020 there were more than four times as many SPAC IPOs, raising over $75 billion. A SPAC is an alternative to an IPO, or a reverse takeover (less common) and it is essentially a new route to access the capital markets. It is set up by a sponsor, who is responsible for raising a blank check from investors. The structure of a SPAC is such that it democratizes public offerings by allowing non accredited investors to invest alongside the sponsors, thus providing investors with opportunities they might otherwise have missed.

Will the Ecological Transformation Champion Ever Be Born? Long-Lasting Battle Between Veolia and Suez with No Clear Outcome - March 8, 2021
For the last half-year Veolia Environnement was trying to take over Suez in order to create a French-based Ecological Transformation Champion with global presence, while Suez was applying various countermeasures in order to prevent potentially hostile acquisition of control. In our article we want to dig deep in the first French hostile takeover in the last 5 years and cover all the developments around the long-lasting process.

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN): is there a buy opportunity? - March 7, 2021
Despite the ongoing pandemic slashed earnings for a lot of businesses, few companies have experienced a surge in profits, and this is particularly true for Garmin Ltd., which has been able to reap record profits as its revenue jumped 11.4% from 2019, reaching a spectacular level of 4.19 billion dollars. Has the market currently priced in the Company's long-term growth prospects? Is this the right time to buy the stock? Discover it in our analysis!

Deep Dig into January "Reddit Rally" – March 4, 2021
At the end of January, markets witnessed a very peculiar chain of events that have caught investors on Wall Street by surprise and have since received plenty of media attention. The so-called “Reddit Rally” during which billions of dollars were poured into stocks of heavily shorted companies (GameStop, AMC) resulting in skyrocketing share prices. In our article we want to provide a detailed overview of the situation and assess potential impacts of this event.

Hungry for Commodities – Is a new Commodity Super Cycle Here? - March 3, 2021
While the stock market continues to trade at all-time highs, two of the most prominent Wall Street banks, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have stated that the forgotten commodity asset class is finally ready to come back under the spotlight. With metals and soft commodities experiencing double-digit returns, are we at the beginning of a sup ercycle? What macro investment strategy to adopt to profit from this peculiar situation?

Consolidation of the Food Delivery Industry - December 31, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a further increase in the volumes of the food delivery industry, which already saw a staggering 42% pre-Covid 19 growth between Q1 2018 and Q1 2020. However, beneath the enthusiasm of phenomenal growth and momentum lies a troubling reality. What are the drivers of the food delivery industry consolidation and what should we expect next?

CRE: Impact of COVID-19 and Megatrends beyond the pandemic - December 30, 2020
The uncertainty on the short-term path of the world economy is affecting dramatically the process of decisions among various industries across the globe. And unfortunately, the Commercial Real Estate sector is not immune to the relative impact of this crisis. Which are the trends that are likely to last beyond the pandemic?

Covid-19 Crisis: Redemption of Active Managers or End of an Era? - December 27, 2020
Investors and wealth managers have debated extensively which is the superior form of investing: active or passive. Historically, passive investing has outperformed active, while active managers have long claimed that their superiority would be evident during crisis periods. Did they actually manage to deliver during the covid crisis?

Teladoc Health buys Livongo - 22 December, 2020
On October 29, less than three months after its announcement in August, Teladoc and Livongo finalized an $18.5B merger, which sees Livongo as a new subsidiary of Teladoc. The combination of two of the largest publicly traded virtual care companies will create a health technology giant just as the demand for virtual care soars.

Stock Exchanges Waltz: The sale of Borsa Italiana - 16 December, 2020
On October 9, Euronext and Cassa Depositi e Prestiti signed a binding agreement with London Stock Exchange Group to acquire London Stock Exchange Holding (Italy), which owns Borsa Italiana and MTS. The deal includes a €4.325bn offer, all cash. In this article, we analyse the deal, taking into consideration how the industry is performing, past transactions, and the deal rationale.

European Banks are under siege, here is why - 13 December, 2020
The European banking industry has been underperforming the broader stock market over the last decade. There are several reasons behind this crisis: a monetary policy oriented towards low-interest rates, the advent of digitalization in the sector, and stricter regulation. In particular, the last element is the most controversial, given that, although the Basel Committee aimed at ensuring stability in financial markets, regulation ended up hampering bank’s operations and gave fuel to shadow banking, boosting non-bank financing and building up the foundations (who knows) for the next financial crisis.

The segment of the future - an analysis of the semiconductor industry - 11 December, 2020
During these months strongly affected by coronavirus emerged again the importance of an industry whose sales doubled in less than 10 years. If you are wondering what industry is , just think about what enabled technology to find treatments for Coronavirus or allowed work and study from home .
If you are thinking about Semiconductor Industry you are right.

Five-year Plans: The Past, Present, and Future of China - November 26, 2020
Planning the economy is a crucial aspect of Chinese Socialism and every five years the Communist Party’s Central Committee drafts the economic guidelines for the country. Last October, the Communist Party announced the topics that will be discussed for the fourteenth 5-year plan (2021-2025): great attention will be given to new technologies and green energy. In this article, we first analyze why 5-year plans are a fundamental element of the Chinese economy. Then, we focus on the fourteenth 5-year plan from a market perspective.

Focus on Asset-Based Finance - November 25, 2020
Asset-based finance refers to a broad category of investments and lending that aims at providing funding not only to companies, in particular Small-Medium Enterprise, but in general every creditworthy borrower which is able to provide a collateral to back his/hers loan. The wide plethora of assets covered, from used cars to aviation, highlights the crucial ability of ABF to provide portfolio diversification, while rewarding with higher returns compared to the conventional forms of investment.

Morgan Stanley to buy Eaton Vance - November 24, 2020
On the 8th of October, Morgan Stanley announced a definitive agreement to purchase Eaton Vance’s investment management business of over $500 billion AUM for an equity value of $7 billion by the end of 2021 on a 50% cash, 50% stock transaction. This announcement, following Morgan Stanley’s and E-Trade’s closing, will reshape the asset management industry and once again advance Morgan Stanley’ mission of becoming a top asset management firm.